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The war that began on October 7, 2023 has transformed the Middle East. This paper examines the extent to which the ongoing regional conflict has produced grand strategic change in Israel, Iran and the Gulf states. It also analyses the implications of these dynamics for contemporary and future conflict in the Middle East. It argues that the extent of grand strategic change is proportional to the level of shock that each actor has endured. After the trauma of October 7, Israel has adopted an increasingly force-centric and revisionist approach to regional order. Nevertheless, it is struggling to translate battlefield success into durable political outcomes. Facing a perceived existential threat, Iran has also comprehensively overhauled its grand strategy, shifting away from its reliance on proxies to instead employ on its own home-grown state capacities to wage war and project deterrence. By contrast, having faced a comparatively lesser trauma than either Israel or Iran, the Gulf states have largely responded through grand strategic continuity: strengthening defence and doubling down on external partnerships while preserving diplomatic off-ramps. Taken together, these trajectories suggest a region profoundly altered by war, but one in which strategic change remains uneven and incomplete. Dr Rob Geist Pinfold is a Lecturer in International Security at King’s College London, an Adjunct Professor at Johns Hopkins SAIS, and a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Gulf International Forum and the Peace Research Center Prague. He is a scholar of grand strategy, with a regional focus on war and contemporary conflict in the Middle East. He has published in multiple academic journals, including the European Journal of International Security, the Journal of Global Security Studies, Survival, International Studies Perspectives, the Journal of Strategic Studies and Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. His book, Understanding Territorial Withdrawal: Israeli Occupations and Exits, was published by Oxford University Press in 2023 and was awarded the European Association of Israel Studies Academic Achievement Award in 2024. He writes regularly for policy and media outlets, including Foreign Policy, War on the Rocks, Haaretz, The New Arab, Arab News and the New Statesman, and provides commentary for international broadcasters including Al Jazeera, France 24, RTÉ, CNBC and the BBC.

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