Much of the conversation around Brexit focusses on single issues, prejudice and wishful thinking. Advocates on both sides play on these and it is hard to find evidence-based information that looks at the bigger picture on either side of the debate. Whichever side you’re on, we aim to give you a skeptical way to think about Brexit.
Like any other event in the real world, Brexit would have good and bad effects. Because the vote is in-or-out, however, the discourse is binary: leaving the EU would be a disaster or a godsend. The discussion isn’t based on realistic scenarios. Not many people talk about the effects on the EU of a British departure. Fewer still talk about changes to the UK if there’s a vote to remain. Talking with no advocacy agenda about what the world might be like after the 23rd of June 2016 is rare. Answering questions about the future using structured methods is rarer.
Predicting the future is a mug’s game, but looking to the future without correcting for your cognitive biases is foolish. This is why structured horizon scanning is the first step in making strategy.
Lynette Nusbacher is a professional strategist. She was the first head of the Strategic Horizons Unit in the Cabinet Office, conducting futures work to underpin the UK National Security Strategy. Before that she served as Senior Intelligence Advisor and Devil’s Advocate to the Joint Intelligence Committee, responsible for analytical integrity of national intelligence assessments. Before that she was Senior Lecturer in War Studies at Royal Military Academy Sandhurst.